The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (2024)

Table of Contents
From the editor Tom Standage’s ten trends to watch in 2024 Leaders 2024 will be stressful for those who care about liberal democracy The world must try to break a vicious cycle of insecurity Don’t give up on peace in the Middle East Europe needs to step up support for Ukraine America will need a new vocabulary to discuss its presidential election Don’t count on a soft landing for the world economy Generative AI holds much promise for businesses The green transition will transform the global economic order The scourge of “stealthflation” The year ahead Drawing on 2024 Calendar 2024 Superforecasters What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2024 Britain Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer: who would actually bring change? Britain’s Conservative Party faces up to its mortality The outlook for the British economy is better than expected Which Commonwealth realms might ditch King Charles III? Britain’s NHS will continue to be a political hot potato in 2024 Rachel Reeves on Labour’s plans for Britain’s finances Europe The war in Ukraine may be heading for stalemate Vladimir Putin cannot keep funding his war for ever How the war in Ukraine is changing the Caucasus Ukraine has brought Nordic and Baltic countries together France will unify for sport but not for politics Europe’s elections pitch centrists against populists, again Europe’s economies will diverge in new ways Dara Massicot on dealing with trauma in Ukraine United States An unpopularity contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump looms The people to watch in 2024 ahead of America’s election Three economic risks facing America in 2024 With crises in Ukraine and Israel, can America still defend Taiwan? Can America regulate big tech at all? Americans are moving to smaller towns in the South A cricket World Cup comes to America Extreme heat will bake America’s cities Niall Ferguson and Condoleezza Rice on the new cold war The Americas Latin America’s left-right divide may be disrupted in 2024 Mexico will elect its first female president The future is bright for Latin American startups Latin America could lead the way on green power Justin Trudeau wants a fourth term as Canada’s prime minister Asia Narendra Modi’s expected re-election will inspire fear and hope India has big plans to export its e-government technology China is watching closely who will be Taiwan’s next president The Central Asian republics are cultivating new alliances The energy transition could create unexpected linkages in Asia Indonesia will elect a new president in February S. Jaishankar on India’s growing global role China China’s leaders will seek to exploit global divisions in 2024 China’s appeal to poor countries is changing Xi Jinping will consolidate his power in the coming year China faces a trade-off between confidence and credibility The Chinese Communist Party is struggling to inspire the young Life will get even harder for foreign firms in China Middle East & Africa A new balance of power will emerge in the Middle East The Middle East faces a series of sham elections The aftermath of the war with Israel will shape Palestinian life The Middle East’s music business has huge potential In Iran, 2024 is all about the succession African countries will scrimp on investment in the coming year It’s going to get grimmer in the Sahel South Africa faces a defining election There is a new scramble for Africa International How to rig an election Global average temperatures may pass a threshold in 2024 Demand for “green” metals will redraw the global mining map The BRICS are expanding Deep-sea miners are ready to get down to work Nuclear testing could start a new arms race A global agency to oversee AI is a tall order How we did with last year’s predictions Industries Ten business trends for 2024, and forecasts for 15 industries Trendlines Metrics to keep an eye on in 2024, from solar cells to superhero movies Business Decarbonisation of industrial activities is beginning Europe needs to build energy islands Generative AI will go mainstream in 2024 The fight to control the headset market will intensify Semiconductors will remain central to America’s tech rivalry with China EVs are poised to make China the world’s biggest car exporter The fight over remote working will heat up in 2024 Travellers face another year of disruption in 2024 Sluggish investment is holding India back Self-driving cars are slowly moving forward Can hi-tech supply chains binding China and America be untangled? Timnit Gebru says harmful AI systems need to be stopped Finance & economics Rich-world labour markets will remain strong in 2024 A global minimum tax on firms is finally taking shape The world’s most indebted countries face another year in limbo Investors are daring to hope for some stability in the stockmarket An onslaught of protectionism will change global trade The roll-out of central-bank digital currencies will slow in 2024 Three commodities could take off in 2024 Science & technology AI models will become smaller and faster Expect a bumper year for weight-loss drugs New medical treatments will use genetic scissors, and other clever tricks Astronauts are returning to the moon…well, sort of Get ready for the Great North American eclipse The next pandemic could hit global crop supplies Jennifer Holmgren on the circular carbon economy Culture AI will transform every aspect of Hollywood storytelling Museums will multiply in 2024 What will be the bestsellers in the coming year? A spate of new musicals will cheer the spirits in 2024 A new era for west African architecture Female rock stars are becoming increasingly popular in China Obituary Reflections on paperlessness, in the spirit of Ogden Nash

From the editor

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (1)

The World Ahead 2024

Tom Standage’s ten trends to watch in 2024

A letter from the editor of The World Ahead

Leaders

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (2)

Democracy in danger

2024 will be stressful for those who care about liberal democracy

In theory it should be a triumphant year for democracy. In practice it will be the opposite

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (3)

Multipolar disorder

The world must try to break a vicious cycle of insecurity

The fragility of the Western coalition is a crucial weakness

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (4)

Middle East in turmoil

Don’t give up on peace in the Middle East

But the process of getting there will be alarmingly fragile

Whither Ukraine?

Europe needs to step up support for Ukraine

As a long war with Russia looms, American support can no longer be depended on

America’s fateful choice

America will need a new vocabulary to discuss its presidential election

Unprecedented, uncharted, not unthinkable

The world economy

Don’t count on a soft landing for the world economy

Inflation has fallen, but vulnerabilities remain

Generative AI holds much promise for businesses

The green transition will transform the global economic order

The scourge of “stealthflation”

Companies have found sneaky ways to raise prices. Where will it end?

The year ahead

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (5)

KAL

Drawing on 2024

The Economist’s editorial cartoonist Kevin (“KAL”) Kallaugher pictures the year ahead

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (6)

The World Ahead 2024

Calendar 2024

Our selection of events around the world

Superforecasters

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (7)

Superforecasters in 2024

What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2024

The experts at Good Judgment weigh in on the coming year

Britain

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (8)

Britain votes

Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer: who would actually bring change?

Two men who are not natural brawlers will fight it out for power in Britain’s election in 2024

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (9)

Tories in trouble

Britain’s Conservative Party faces up to its mortality

Expect the five stages of grief

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (10)

Britain’s economy

The outlook for the British economy is better than expected

But that does not mean it is rosy

Ditching the king

Which Commonwealth realms might ditch King Charles III?

A new wave of republicanism is gathering

The ailing NHS

Britain’s NHS will continue to be a political hot potato in 2024

Perhaps hotter than usual

Labour’s economic plans

Rachel Reeves on Labour’s plans for Britain’s finances

The shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer promises to restore economic stability

Europe

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (11)

Ukraine fights on

The war in Ukraine may be heading for stalemate

Some big decisions will need to be made

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (12)

Russia’s perpetual war

Vladimir Putin cannot keep funding his war for ever

But after winning Russia’s presidential election in March, he will try

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (13)

Trouble in the Caucasus

How the war in Ukraine is changing the Caucasus

Turkey and Azerbaijan hope to benefit from Russia’s betrayal of Armenia

Baltics and Nordics

Ukraine has brought Nordic and Baltic countries together

It turns out the Baltics were right

Politics and Olympics

France will unify for sport but not for politics

The Paris 2024 Olympics will briefly pause the polarising politics

Centrists v populists

Europe’s elections pitch centrists against populists, again

Expect spats over net zero and over who gets the top jobs

Europe’s economies will diverge in new ways

Dara Massicot on dealing with trauma in Ukraine

United States

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (14)

Unpopularity contest

An unpopularity contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump looms

The coming year is likely to bring even greater malaise among American voters

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (15)

Who to watch

The people to watch in 2024 ahead of America’s election

Some are well known, some are not

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (16)

America’s economy

Three economic risks facing America in 2024

The economy has dodged a recession, but it is not out of the woods yet

Stretched superpower

With crises in Ukraine and Israel, can America still defend Taiwan?

American power is being stretched abroad and undermined at home

Free speech online

Can America regulate big tech at all?

State internet-safety laws face First Amendment scrutiny in 2024

Small towns get bigger

Americans are moving to smaller towns in the South

Enthusiasm for small-town living has outlived the pandemic

A cricket World Cup comes to America

Extreme heat will bake America’s cities

Niall Ferguson and Condoleezza Rice on the new cold war

Military strength and allies matter, but nothing is inevitable. Five lessons from the cold war stand out

The Americas

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (17)

Latin America’s politics

Latin America’s left-right divide may be disrupted in 2024

Politics in the region is becoming more complex

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (18)

Mexican democracy

Mexico will elect its first female president

The question is how much she will be like her predecessor

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (19)

Thriving startups

The future is bright for Latin American startups

Companies are doing well around the region’s pain points

Green resources

Latin America could lead the way on green power

A resource blessing, not a curse?

Canadian politics

Justin Trudeau wants a fourth term as Canada’s prime minister

He may find an unlikely ally in Donald Trump

Asia

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (20)

India’s election

Narendra Modi’s expected re-election will inspire fear and hope

He is long accused of mistreatment of political opponents and religious minorities

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (21)

Indian technology

India has big plans to export its e-government technology

From biometric IDs to payment systems, it has a lot to offer

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (22)

Taiwan’s election

China is watching closely who will be Taiwan’s next president

It prefers, as always, the KMT candidate

Asia in 2024

The Central Asian republics are cultivating new alliances

But links to Russia are likely to remain strong

Central Asia’s ties

The energy transition could create unexpected linkages in Asia

Energy linkages

Indonesia will elect a new president in February

But economic policies may not shift much after Jokowi’s departure

S. Jaishankar on India’s growing global role

China

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (23)

An undeclared cold war

China’s leaders will seek to exploit global divisions in 2024

But they will continue to preach harmony

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (24)

End of the road?

China’s appeal to poor countries is changing

It is less about the money and more about the message

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (25)

Xi and the yes­-men

Xi Jinping will consolidate his power in the coming year

But who are the runners and riders below him?

China’s economy

China faces a trade-off between confidence and credibility

Setting the official economic-growth target poses a dilemma

Disaffected youth

The Chinese Communist Party is struggling to inspire the young

Youth unemployment will remain high

Foreign firms’ woes

Life will get even harder for foreign firms in China

It looks like the new, post-covid normal is here to stay

Middle East & Africa

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (26)

Beyond Gaza

A new balance of power will emerge in the Middle East

America will still be an important part of it

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (27)

Despots v democracy

The Middle East faces a series of sham elections

Real democracy is too dangerous

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (28)

The Palestinians’ future

The aftermath of the war with Israel will shape Palestinian life

Many eyes will be on the Palestinian Authority

Middle Eastern music

The Middle East’s music business has huge potential

Governments and record labels are paying attention

Iran’s future

In Iran, 2024 is all about the succession

Ayatollah Ali Khaminei, the supreme leader, makes some calculations

Africa’s economies

African countries will scrimp on investment in the coming year

This will drag down future growth

It’s going to get grimmer in the Sahel

South Africa faces a defining election

There is a new scramble for Africa

Foreign meddling is spreading chaos and tyranny

International

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (29)

How to rig an election

How to rig an election

Rather than crudely stuffing ballot boxes, autocrats will cheat in hundreds of less obvious ways

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (30)

Global temperatures

Global average temperatures may pass a threshold in 2024

El Niño won’t help

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (31)

Green metals

Demand for “green” metals will redraw the global mining map

The energy transition will mint new fortunes in surprising places

Expanding BRICS

The BRICS are expanding

They will host their biggest-ever summit in 2024

Deep-sea mining

Deep-sea miners are ready to get down to work

Now they are just awaiting legal authorisation

The new arms race?

Nuclear testing could start a new arms race

This time it would be three sides, not just two

A global agency to oversee AI is a tall order

How we did with last year’s predictions

Industries

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (32)

The World Ahead 2024

Ten business trends for 2024, and forecasts for 15 industries

A global round-up from The Economist Intelligence Unit

Trendlines

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (33)

Trendlines in 2024

Metrics to keep an eye on in 2024, from solar cells to superhero movies

Some are merely fun—while others are potentially world-changing

Business

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (34)

Decarbonising industry

Decarbonisation of industrial activities is beginning

Technology is improving, and policy is starting to shift

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (35)

Energy islands

Europe needs to build energy islands

But what sort should it build?

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (36)

Companies adopt AI

Generative AI will go mainstream in 2024

Data-savvy firms will benefit first

The next tech platform

The fight to control the headset market will intensify

They are the next big tech platform

US­-China chip wars

Semiconductors will remain central to America’s tech rivalry with China

Expect America to step up global enforcement of its sanctions on chips and chipmaking gear

Chinese EVs pull ahead

EVs are poised to make China the world’s biggest car exporter

Its lead in battery-making is crucial

The fight over remote working will heat up in 2024

Travellers face another year of disruption in 2024

Sluggish investment is holding India back

Will the coming year be any different?

Self-driving cars are slowly moving forward

Having kept riders waiting for years, they are finally arriving

Can hi-tech supply chains binding China and America be untangled?

De-risking is a boon for China’s neighbours

Timnit Gebru says harmful AI systems need to be stopped

The labour movement has a vital role to play, says the AI expert

Finance & economics

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (37)

Strong labour markets

Rich-world labour markets will remain strong in 2024

Even if there is a recession

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (38)

Global minimum tax

A global minimum tax on firms is finally taking shape

But another much-trumpeted tax reform looks destined to fall apart

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (39)

Poor countries’ debt

The world’s most indebted countries face another year in limbo

Geopolitical tensions have frozen the process of debt restructuring

Rollercoaster markets

Investors are daring to hope for some stability in the stockmarket

After three years riding a rollercoaster

Trade and tariffs

An onslaught of protectionism will change global trade

But it will not diminish it

Central-bank digital currencies

The roll-out of central-bank digital currencies will slow in 2024

They create new problems while solving few

Three commodities could take off in 2024

Science & technology

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (40)

What’s next for AI

AI models will become smaller and faster

They will improve in plenty of other ways, too

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (41)

Fighting obesity

Expect a bumper year for weight-loss drugs

The market for drugs such as Wegovy and Mounjaro could be worth $77bn by 2030

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (42)

New drugs to watch

New medical treatments will use genetic scissors, and other clever tricks

From sickle-cell disease to glaucoma, these are the drugs to look out for

The year in space

Astronauts are returning to the moon…well, sort of

There are plenty of other launches, missions and rockets to look out for

A solar eclipse

Get ready for the Great North American eclipse

It is one event that will definitely happen in 2024

A global crop pandemic

The next pandemic could hit global crop supplies

As plant diseases spread across continents, greater scrutiny is needed

Jennifer Holmgren on the circular carbon economy

Culture

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (43)

AI’s impact on Hollywood

AI will transform every aspect of Hollywood storytelling

But it will also cause more friction

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (44)

New museums

Museums will multiply in 2024

From Go-Go music, to Shakespeare, to robots in Seoul

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (45)

Books to watch for

What will be the bestsellers in the coming year?

Books on robots, Russia and romance are likely candidates

Musicals’ moment

A spate of new musicals will cheer the spirits in 2024

There is nothing like a bit of pure escapism

African architecture

A new era for west African architecture

Buildings that bridge tradition and modernity are taking shape

Music in China

Female rock stars are becoming increasingly popular in China

But songs about female empowerment still make the government nervous

Obituary

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (46)

Obituary

Reflections on paperlessness, in the spirit of Ogden Nash

As several airlines prepare to phase out paper boarding passes in 2024, our obituarist laments the decline of paper tickets of all kinds

The World Ahead 2024 from The Economist (2024)
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